M.J. Melendezs 2019 and Bo Naylors 2020 are recent examples of otherwise good-hitting catchers who had a terrible offensive season in the mid-minors that was followed by an immediate and significant rebound the following year. Throw in the visual twitch and athleticism, and this is the player Spotifys algorithm would recommend to FanGraphs if prospects were musical artists. Any Top 100 prospects, regardless of their ETA, are also included on this list. Whats more, theres a chance Triolo hits enough to simply be an everyday option at second (or if he turns out to be okay in center). Luigi Hernandez, RHP. If his defense continues to look like it did in the 2022-23 Dominican Winter League during 2023 spring training, he may quickly be repositioned on this list. As a wrap-up, the Pirates have. Hes an arm strength reclamation project with a shot to pitch in Pittsburghs bullpen. His delivery has a relief-only look to it. He has a wide arsenal, including a changeup and a two-seamer, but tends to rely more heavily on pairing his riding fastball and curveball to keep hitters off balance. Gonzales had a 68% Z-contact% as a 23-year-old at Double-A. Alessandro Ercolani, RHP Meanwhile, Chandlers post-promotion production at the plate plummeted to a sub-.200 batting average and an OPS of just .574, thanks largely to a strikeout rate just barely south of 40%; he launched just a single dinger in his 32 Low-A games compared to three in his 14 games on the complex. While prospect list ultimately isn't what makes a player great, it is . Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb. You can really see his athleticism and remarkable hip/shoulder separation on his throws down to second. His feel for throwing strikes would come and go, and hes only 6-feet-1, a little smaller than the prep pitching prototypes who you often see getting $2 million or more in the draft. RT @NorthShoreNine: wNS9+ With @longenhagen Discussing the @fangraphs Pirates Top Prospect List You found it controversial, so we discussed it Subscribe & Listen . Once-Loved Outfielders As for the top three prospects on all six lists, their average rankings: Termarr Johnson - 28.2 Endy Rodriguez - 38.5 Henry Davis - 52 John Dreker + posts John started working at Pirates. If it does, he should be a 50, and that grade was discussed during the Pirates list-making process. Hes been a fast-mover thus far and looks likely to continue that pattern, with a chance to show up on the big-league roster later this season, though a 2024 big league debut is more likely. But the improvement on his slider means he could solidify a role as a middle reliever, especially if the converted infielder is able to re-establish the fastball velos he flirted with a few years ago. Mason Martin, 1B Atlanta Braves Stats | FanGraphs Baseball After coasting through the low and mid-minors, he finally hit a speed bump in 2022, posting his first below-average statline as a 21-year-old at Double-A Altoona. Connor Scott, RF Jones checked all but two scouting boxes as a high school pitcher. Pathways toward a more impactful role are most likely to be carved by Harringtons command outperforming this projection. Malone, a former first round high schooler who was part of the Starling Marte trade with Arizona, has barely pitched since he was acquired, and dealt with shoulder injuries in 2022. The effects of a pro strength and conditioning program might kick-start him down the path toward finding a more consistent release and sustaining the big velocity as a pro starter. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He has a short arm action, which aids in his command, though refining his location will likely be the order of the day upon his return from injury as he continues to work out of the Pirates pen. His chase rates were at or below league average across the board, further emphasizing the troubling command. He spent more of his big league time in the outfield than at his native second base. Plaz had a cartoonish line in the DSL (he slugged over .700), but hes very burly and physically mature for a 17-year-old, so wed like to see him do it stateside. Jose Tabata / OF. Hes a fun one cause he had 20 grade defense apparently but scored positive defensively and 30 grade speed but ran nearly 29 feet/second. Hes going to be a star if he ends up with even average raw power, and even if he doesnt, were talking about a switch-hitting catcher who can make an impact on both offense and defense. Nicolas has consistent glove-side command of his entire repertoire, and he tends to live on that half of the plate exclusively. That creates backspin and carry on his fastball and big depth on his curve. In April and May, he posted a strikeout rate of 15.9% and a walk rate of 14.5%; from June to September, he improved those marks to 28.5% and 6.9%, respectively. Instead, Triolo looks like hell be a superutility guy. Swaggerty matched the nine home runs he posted in 2019, but this time, he did so against better pitching, in fewer at-bats, and in a much less hitter-friendly park, and he improved on his walk rate by a couple of ticks. He ultimately went fourth overall to Pittsburgh, and because hes a relatively advanced hitter with a mature build, theres a good chance the Pirates move Johnson through the minors pretty quickly if he hits the ground running offensively. Prospect Report: Diamondbacks 2023 Imminent Big Leaguers Yean, 21, was once a 40+ FV prospect in Washingtons system. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every teams list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. If a clearer path at third base existed in this org, that might have been enough for us to do it. Nolasco had two years of surface-level statistical success in rookie ball and the huge exit velos to match, but now after three pro seasons, his strikeout rates show a troubling upward trend. From the left side of the plate, Rodriguez has an exceptional ability to rip his hands through pitches on the inner edge of the zone. So the question is, was there actual improvement in his ability or is this just noise in the signal? Top 42 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates by Eric Longenhagen February 28, 2020 Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He projects as a quick-moving no. Podcasts: . His mother spent her childhood in London, while his father "a real Brit; he still has an . Nick Gonzales - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball But as Triolos pro success with the bat continued at a high level, and with KeBryan Hayes manning the hot corner for the Pirates foreseeable future, the Pirates began searching for defensive alternatives in order to plug Triolo into their lineup. Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Axiel Plaz, C Priesters four-seamer is divisive. Roelmy Garcia, RHP Triolo earned industry praise for his defensive aptitude and high marks for his baseball IQ and instincts. Averaging Out the Top Prospect Rankings - Pirates Prospects While it may seem like a lot of time has passed since he put his name on the prospect map with his otherworldly 2018 DSL performance, Nunez is still very young; hell turn 22 during spring training, where hes a non-roster invitee. He spins the hell out of everything that leaves his hand, in particular his slider, which averaged over 2,700 rpm, but his inability to fine tune his command puts a damper on its utility (his walk rate was an untenable 12.4% across his 75.2 innings of work). A few months later, the Pirates emerged as the word-of-mouth favorite to sign him; he inked a deal for $750,000 in January. His four-seamer was around the same velo as it had been at the alt site, sitting comfortably at 93 mph and maxing out at 95. Don't Count Quinn Priester Out Due to Low Strikeouts Here are the Pirates' 2023 Top 30 prospects March 1, 2023 Pirates' Chandler going all in on pitching February 28, 2023 Pirates return No. Hes now 23 but could still be a fifth outfielder. He sits in the upper 80s right now but has promising underlying traits and plenty of time to develop. Hudson Head, CF A two-way high school player, Jones was clearly a superior prospect as a pitcher, as he was one of the most electric on-mound athletes to roll through the high school ranks over the last decade. Diego Cartaya (37) - Catcher Cartaya is listed a little higher in The. Solometos fastball sits in the 88-92 mph range. Ricky Tiedemann is one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in the game. In some respects, its easy to assess DSL players. Thomas 2022 was a tale of two seasons. This was a four-year rookie-level player who had suddenly been added to the Royals 40-man roster after the 2021 season even though he had all of 32 innings above Low-A. ago They do not like solemeto or Gonzalez. 2018 Brewers batting, pitching, and fielding traditional and advanced stats. He showed a velo spike (92-96) at the onset of the 2022 college season before his arm strength and command regressed. Jerez has above-average power and a 70 arm. The 11-15 group consists of Jared Jones, Ji-hwan Bae, Anthony Solometo, Kyle Nicolas and Jared Triolo. His acrobatics and creativity at third base make him a plus defender there. His quality of contact is very good when he does make it, and is already on par with the typical starting major league second baseman even though hes barely 22. Its not a great look to lose half a minor league rosters worth of players in the Rule 5, but that whole group might produce one or two big league role players, which is a small price to pay if theyre byprospects of a bigger group from which the Pirates can pick and choose before exposing the rest to that arcane process. Brennan Malone, RHP. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Andrew McCutchen / OF 3. To be fair, he was only about average in terms of OAA. He has now struck out nearly 30% of the time during each of the last two seasons, but hes still performed comfortably above the league average at each stop because of the quality of the contact he does make. Hes now a career .303/.394/.533 hitter and has had meaningful statistical success up through Double-A, where he spent about a month toward the end of 2022. After bouncing around many websites covering hockey, he . Chandlers pitching performance wasnt as lights-out as it had been pre-promotion, but it was still a display of the rightys potential. Big league sliders might force Davis to make an adjustment, but so far his contact performance has been solidly average. . His player page shows him above average in UZR/150, OAA and RAA (although only 1 in each of the latter two). He stayed healthy throughout 2022, throwing 70.1 innings, and was more effective out of the bullpen than in his late-season starts. From that point on, however, Triolo walked more and struck out less, such that both rates sat in the mid-teens, while flipping the slugging switch on to the tune of 13 doubles, five triples, and eight home runs over the course of the same number of games. Hes still the contact-first, chop-and-spray hitter hes always been, an approach to hitting enabled and bolstered by his speed, which allows him to beat out infield singles. A double-plus hit tool leads the way for Termarr Johnson, a 5'7" 175 lb left-handed hitter who calls Jose Ramirez to mind on a quick visual evaluation. Sammy Siani, LF. He mixed in four pitches, with his four-seamer and slider accounting for 88% of his pitches, and the changeup and two-seamer bringing up the rear. Mlodzinski started for most of his 2022 season at Double-A but was called upon for middle-inning relief on a few occasions, and though it was only a handful of appearances, he was more effective as a reliever than as a starter. Webb dealt with a forearm strain that delayed the start of his 2022 season. Pirates 2B Termarr Johnson | 18 | A | 2025. Hes on the 40-man roster and will likely get a chance to sink or swim on the big league roster in 2023. Still, his strikeouts come primarily on in-zone swing-and-miss, so its important for the strike-throwing to improve for him to capitalize on his ability to overpower hitters as he continues to advance. While likely of low impact, Solometos feel to pitch will almost certainly enable him to be a big leaguer of some kind, either a backend starter or long reliever. Hes already taken a sizable step in the breaking ball department in just two pros seasons. Blake Cederlind, RHP The emergence of a consistently above-average third offering reignited Burrows projection as a starter (he had been projected as a reliever here in previous seasons, in part due to injuries), and of his 24 outings in 2022, only two came out of the bullpen and just four were shorter than three innings. Theyve tripled since his claim-staking 2019 DSL season and Nolsaco Kd at a whopping 34% rate in the 2022 Florida State League. His command and changeup are both still works in progress, but his 2022 fastball strike% (68%) is an encouraging sign, and again, Jones has a special level of athleticism that should enable him to hone both over time. Overall, there is a ton of in-zone swing-and-miss happening here. These rankings include six Pittsburgh Pirates prospects cracking the FanGraph top 100. Flowers has pitched very well in the mid-minors (he carried a 2.88 ERA with Altoona in 2022) and hes been especially good at avoiding walks for a pure relief prospect. ), and some of the recent, perhaps overzealous examples (Maikel Escotto, Rodolfo Nolasco) are in this system. Instead, Lopez picked up some reps in the Dominican Winter League, just a few games against the most advanced competition he has yet seen, and is poised to spend 2023 as a 21-year-old at Altoona. But he was then shut down and had TJ, which ended his season early enough that he could be back in 2023. Barring a velo bump or another significant alteration to some of the more concerning elements of his profile, he looks like a single-inning up/down reliever. }); Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category. The organization will be thrilled if . The Pirates have three of those 38 players, with Termarr Johnson ranked 21st, Endy Rodriguez 22nd and Henry Davis 38th. Robert_roberts82 1 min. You can see the power and athleticism in Davis lower half throughout other aspects of his game, and its an indication that he has the ability to polish this stuff up and control the running game. 4/5 starter. Reports around his once-stellar defense have dimmed, and were hoping its due more to rust and lost time than to an actual regression in ability. While his walk and strikeout rates were both descent through the first half of 2022, only nine of his 57 hits through mid-June went for extra bases (eight doubles and a home run). This is one of those prospects fantasy players should value more highly than this because of his potential home run output, whereas defensive limitations cause us to value his real-world roster fit in this range. ago Finding a great changeup (or maybe a split?) Let's Identify Some Hitter Sleeper Candidates | FanGraphs Baseball He missed basically all of September and was shelled in the only start he made coming off the IL. But given his age and the amount of runway still afforded to him, this was seen as a speed bump for his development rather than being of great concern at the time. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Still tracking like a high-probability backup catcher, Gutierrez set a career-high in homers in 2022 amid an uptick in strikeouts that his underlying data (just a 10% swinging strike rate) indicates will bounce back to career norms. Cubs prospect Hayden Wesneski proving he belongs in the big leagues Pirates Draft Prospect Watch: Big Weekend for LSU's Dylan Crews Ideally, Nicolas can develop an offering that has some arm-side movement, one better than his current changeup that can prevent hitters from sitting on those glove-side locations. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Mitch Keller, Travis Swaggerty, Tahnaj Thomas and. This is the case with De Los Santos. DeVito brandishes a five-pitch arsenal headlined by a filthy splitter, but he struggled to locate any of his pitches well enough for them to really complement each other. None of his other pitches are above average in fact most of them are currently below average but Chen has plus command projection and a plus changeup, so hes pretty likely to pitch at the back of a big league rotation or as an innings-eating spot starter. Born Harrison Michael Ford, in Atlanta, 20 years ago this week, the right-handed-hitting catcher is the son of English immigrants. If he continues missing bats at High-A in 2023, though, Pittsburgh may be forced to add him. On the showcase circuit, he was less whiff-prone than is typical for a multi-sport guy from the Northeast, though he was a pull-only hitter and struggled to contact fastballs in the upper/outer quadrant of the zone. His breaking ball is his best pitch and he could be a lefty relief piece. Be warned that he may hit for huge power at Greensboro in 2023, but the key thing to watch is his strikeout rate. Hes naturally adept at framing low strikes because hes already so low to the ground, but its also fair to wonder if such a small athlete can withstand the grind of catching 80-100 games every summer. His arm action looks longer and looser than it was in his injury-shortened 2021, and his upper body appears more closed, which might be helping him hide the ball longer than before. The high-waisted Lopez has a wide range of athletic/mobility outcomes that will impact where he ultimately ends up on defense. The reason why he graded out so positively was due to his arm, gunning down runners like crazy, which was fantastic, and his tool grade for his armwas a 40. If he does end up having relevant chase issues, he might track like a left-handed hitting Brendan Rodgers, but Johnsons makeup and personality are so universally lauded that its fair to expect him to make relevant adjustments and become a key cog on Pittsburghs next competitive team. Triolos swing and footwork in the box make him vulnerable in a couple of obvious ways (high heat, sliders away), and we dont think the 60-grade hit, 45-grade power profile that he has put on paper so far will hold quite that much water against big league arms. Either way, he played over half the season in the outfield and was roughly average, which is much better than I would have expected after the reporting on him previously called him a positionless defender. Uribe, 20, is a projectable lefty with a 92-93 mph fastball and high-spin breaking ball. He also has a promising sweeper slider, but he lacks typical physical projection for a teenage pitcher. It shows above-average arm-side action on occasion, but hes only throwing it 12% of the time. Still, the teenage pitcher demo is bust-prone and, anecdotally, this seems especially true when the prospect in question already throws really hard at age 17 or 18.
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